Module 4: Introduction to Rainfall Extremes Indices
This module has three objectives: (1) to describe the attributes of rainfall extremes which can lead to extreme events, (2) characterize rainfall extremes indices; and (3) demonstrate the use of rainfall extremes indices in risk analysis
It starts by describing the different attributes of rainfall extremes such as its magnitude, frequency and duration, which can lead to extreme events. Then the different annual rainfall extremes indices are identified based on the daily rainfall data.
The method for calculating the climate extremes indices for each period is then described. The resulting national-scale maps and provincial tables are then discussed.
Module 5: The Philippine Climate Extremes Report 2020
This module introduces the contents of the Philippine Climate Extremes Report 2020. It aims to: (1) explain the objectives and methodology of the report; (2) provide guidance on how to interpret the data and results presented in the report; and (3) guide the learner in integrating the report data in their policy-making process.
The first part of the module provides the context for creating the report. The methodology for downscaling climate information from global climate models (GCMs) using regional climate models (RCMs) to come up with an ensemble of climate extremes indices is then discussed.
The second part presents an example of national-scale maps for a particular climate extremes index. The baseline data, derived from observations from 1986-2005, and projected climate for three time periods: near-future (2020-2039), mid-future (2046-2065) and far-future (2080-2099) for two RCP scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are presented.
Then the methodology for creating the corresponding provincial-scale data is discussed, followed by a presentation of a sample table of climate extremes for a particular province.
The third part introduces the Climate Extremes Risk Analysis Matrix (CERAM) tool, which is designed to help LGUs integrate the climate extremes data into their development planning through the Climate and Disaster Risk Assessment (CDRA) process.
Lastly, some notes on the adaptation options provided in the report are presented emphasizing the need for localized analysis so as to come up with appropriate policies, which are responsive to the specific needs of the community and available resources, and which could be delivered in a timely manner.
The introduction of the climate extreme indices’ historical values and projected changes in the previous modules serves as valuable information to explain the possible changes in magnitude, frequency, and duration of extreme rainfall and temperature in the Philippines. Such climate information is vital in identifying sector specific climatic thresholds which are necessary for risk assessment and adaptation planning to future climate impact. Tools like the Climate Information Risk Analysis Matrix (CLIRAM) and the newly developed Climate Extreme Risk Analysis Matrix (CERAM) would help formulate science-based climate-informed decisions on assessing climate change impact. Local government units may benefit from these as they formulate their own local climate change action plans. Since the choice of climate change adaptation strategies is rooted in the proper understanding of impacts of extreme events, high-impact sectors such as agriculture, human health, water, environment and biodiversity, and infrastructure may gain additional knowledge on the possible impacts of each climate extreme index.
In this module, we discuss the Climate and Disaster Risk Assessment (CDRA) process which is a policy-making framework that identifies strategies to reduce our risks and vulnerabilities to climate change. Then, we show how the CERAM tool fits into the CDRA process so it can be used as a tool for development planning along-side with other existing tools.
A detailed discussion of the parts of the CERAM follows to guide end-users on the utilization of the tool in development and adaptation planning. The module also presents a step-by-step instruction on how to interpret included climate information. The ultimate goal of the tool is to identify possible impacts of the projected changes in climate extremes and eventually choose an appropriate adaptation option which may lessen, if not alleviate its future impacts.
Aside from the online module, an accompanying module manuscript is also presented to guide the end-users on the CERAM’s full utilization. Additional information, activities, and exercises are included in the module manuscript so end-users can start analysing and interpreting their locality’s CERAM.